July 1 (Reuters) – Currency markets are evolving from betting and trends that suited the pandemic to those that fit with the effective boom created by stimulus. Moves ahead this month’s jobs report led by fear of Fed tapering have supported dollar that also fits with the evolution of a positive trend.
Current moves are all unfolding against a backdrop of low volatility, it’s quieter. That underpins currencies with high yields which do well in booms and undermines those with the lowest rates, three of which are the most commonly traded currencies, euro, yen and Swiss franc.
Traders are short a falling yen, purging bullish EUR/USD bets as it drops and witnessing the Swiss franc drop shortly after they established their largest long position since March.
Stocks and commodities have dipped very slightly in comparison to prior gains. Similarly the higher yielding currencies of commodity producers like ZAR and MXN have dipped versus dollar after much bigger rises and are faring better against funding currencies. As focus turns from recessions to recovery they could do much better.
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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.