Grayscale’s Ethereum ETF could bleed $110M daily in first month: Kaiko

Grayscale’s yet-to-launch spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) could bleed an average of $110 million per day if it follows a similar pattern to its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust in the first month. 

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) converted from a closed-end fund to an ETF on Jan. 11, which saw 23% of its assets under management at launch flow out in the first month — totaling $6.5 billion, Kaiko analysts wrote in a May 27 report.

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ETHE has an AUM of $11 billion. If it has “a similar magnitude of outflows” as GBTC, “this would amount to $110 million of average daily outflows or 30% of ETH’s average daily volume on Coinbase,” according to Kaiko.

In the past three months, Grayscale’s ETHE traded at up to a 26% discount to its net asset value (NAV). Kaiko researchers noted that once it becomes a spot ETF, it’s “reasonable to expect” outflows or redemptions as that discount narrows.

GBTC’s discount to NAV — how much it traded below the value of the fund’s holdings — sharply narrowed after it converted to an ETF.

It traded at up to a 17% discount before its conversion but has narrowed over time, allowing many holders to exit GBTC at either the same price they got in or better.

According to YCharts, it’s now at a 0.03% discount for May 24, a level it has hovered around since then.

ETHE’s discount has already narrowed since the Securities and Exchange Commission gave the initial nod to spot Ether ETFs on May 23, though it has yet to begin trading as a spot ETF.

Related: What comes after spot Ether ETF approvals? Execs weigh in

On May 1, ETHE traded at an over 25% discount before steadily narrowing over the month amid speculation the SEC would approve spot Ether ETFs, then quickly reached a 1.28% discount on May 24, YCharts data shows.

ETHE’s year-to-date discount to NAV quickly narrowed amid ETF approval speculation, narrowing again after approvals. Source: YCharts

Kaiko analysts also noted that GBTC’s outflows were surpassed by inflows into other Bitcoin ETFs by the end of January.

Kaiko concluded even if Ether ETF inflows “disappoint in the short term the approval has important implications for ETH as an asset, removing some of the regulatory uncertainty which has weighed on ETH’s performance over the past year.”

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